In this week’s The Glass Half Full, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, broadcast live from Boston to celebrate a milestone: the Dow near 54,000 and the S&P 500 notching its first new all-time high since June 2, its 26th of the year. Ryan and Sonu unpack what caused July’s volatility (an overleveraged, overconcentrated trade in tech and chip stocks that got “found out” once the tide went out) and why the market has already roared back.
They dig into where this bull market stands historically at 3.8 years old, the eighth-longest since World War II, with plenty of room left if it follows the pattern of prior cycles, and explain that continued gains hinge on one thing: profit growth, not rising valuations. That growth is being driven by an AI-fueled investment and capex super cycle, with mega-cap tech companies pledging to spend nearly 5% of GDP over the next two years. They also make the case that this is a global bull market, spotlighting European financials leading the charge, and share why buying international stocks remains the simplest way to diversify away from dollar exposure. They close with a reminder to stay invested through a noisy year of war, inflation, and oil spikes, because the underlying economy and market both remain in good shape.
Key Takeaways
- The S&P 500 hit its first new all-time high since June 2, marking its 26th record close of the year, while the Dow approaches 54,000.
- At roughly 3.8 years old, this bull market is the eighth-longest since World War II; six of the seven longer bull markets lasted at least five years, with an average length of more than seven years, suggesting there could be significant runway left.
- In our opinion, further gains depend on profit growth rather than expanding valuations, and profits are being driven by an AI-related investment and capex super cycle, with mega-cap tech companies planning to spend close to 5% of GDP over the next two years.
- This is a global bull market: European financials are leading gains abroad, and buying international stocks remains one of the simplest ways to diversify away from dollar concentration without betting against the dollar’s reserve-currency status.
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
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